Who believes GM is serious about electric vehicles?

I hope we get some interesting comments.
I worked for GM for 5 years on the EV1 program. I was there from late 1990 to mid-1996 when I left GM. GM was perplexed between what the Legal people were fighting and the what the technology people were doing. Ultimately the legal people won and the EV1 disappeared. The technical people were not blame free and in part sealed their own destiny because they spent such an extreme amount of money, much was through mismanagement by the leadership. But now Bob Lutz is at it again. Toyota and Honda have embarassed GM in the automotive business with its total lack of regard for the environmental issues facing us. EV's are a disruptive technology and too difficult for GM to handle. So what is Lutz doing? I don't know but I suspect it is all a sham to look good while not doing anything serious. After they killed the ZEV mandates in California, they promised fuel cells and the hydrogen economy were just around the corner. Hydrogen is still a potential, but its future remains very foggy. Most estimates are 10, 20 or 30 years away and many inventions are still needed. How do you generate hydrogen cost effectively? how do you store it (and not lose it) both in vehicles and in storage yards, and at fueling stations, how do you distribute it, and how do you dispense it. What happens to a 10,000 psi storage tank 10 years down the road, particularly when some untrained mechanic starts to take things apart while smoking?
All these issues can be addressed but they all take time and money to do. And who's money will it be? YOURS, you can bet on it.
Then GM jumped on the ethanol, flex fuel vehicle bandwagon. Until cellulosic processes are developed the cost will be too high and unless E85 is 25% cheaper than gas, no one will buy it because it does not pay for the inconvenience of refilling 25% more often. And why in the hell, do the OEM's who sell flex fuel get these qualified as alternative fuel vehicles when almost all are refueled with straight gas? They should be awarded credits not based on the number sold, but on the number of gallons of ethanol put in the vehicles. Same way for flex-fuel vehicles counting as AFV's for fleet's EPACT requirements. Count them if they actually buy and burn E85, but but if a fleets buys 3% E85 and 97% gas, then give them 0.03 credits, not full credit. And tell me why, an electric Low Speed Vehicle which replaces a gasoline vehicle does not count as a AFV? It doesn't. I personally believe the ethanol issue will backfire for GM and others supporting it. And who is going to pay for this? YOU ARE!
But now back to GM's announcement of electrifying its entire fleet of vehicles in the future. They finally realized that fuel cell cars are electric vehicles and the same drive technology works for both. I am dying to see what technology they include for charging. Will they go back to the Hughes inductive charging or use conductive charging? Will they put the charger on-board the car (they should, absolutely!) or will they try to scream wolf again and leave it to the electric utilities' mission to invest in the infrastructure. This failed before and will probably fail again.
I don't think Lutz understand the technology very well. If Li batteries are used and they must be, the high power cells being developed for hybrids are perfect for an EV. Vehicles need peak power to accelerate and that is the same power level that a hybrid requires. The Li batteries are now getting more powerful and still holding the high energy levels required for an EV. GM may over analyze the situation and try something more expensive and ultimately more complex by adding ultra capacitors. But right now Lutz is saying the high energy cells are about 5 years off. Didn't GM say they would be building a 1,000,000 fuel cell vehicles by 2010?
So what will they show in LA next month? The easiest solution is to take a fuel cell Equinox and put in a battery pack. Sure it will run, but then all the excuses will be said about how far off it really is and why it will not meet the needs of all American drivers for years to come. Now, GM is saying they will show a series hybrid electric at Detroit Auto Show in Hanuary. Something about a small diesel generator ICE to charge the batteries so you can drive your 300-400 miles. Work the math and it will say the series engine needs to be able to provide all the energy when the pack gets low. This is all too confusing to a company that builds big V8's and all you have to do is fill it with gas and they know how to do that!
It will be interesting to watch this unfold. What I want to watch is what Mitsubishi and Subaru will show this year. Both have very serious programs going on in Japan to produce and demonstrate full electric vehicles. Both showed vehicles last year at both autoshows and I think they were at EVS23 this year.
Let me know your thoughts on this.
Richard M.
Update Dec. 4, 2006 GM has done their announcement in LA. Who is impressed?
This is a good news, bad news story. For EV people, this is great news. GM coming back to this market with a plug-in hybrid brings credibility to the EV market, which they helped kill. This is particularly good news for the battery people who need a large volume customer to sell to. Bad news is, if GM is not really driven to do it, Toyota will kill them by being faster to market. I believe GM has set-off a horse race for PHEV's. Toyota will bring one to market in one year, mark my words. They are not going to give an inch in this market. GM on the other hand is trying to re-establish itself, but talk will not do it. Only action will do it. GM's strategy is to bring their 2 mode hybrid to production (rear wheel drive, large trucks), then do another one but smaller for front wheel drive (like the Vue). How long will that take? Then, they need to figure out how to get the batteries developed, ready and how much energy to put in. How long will this take? Then they will fight over how to charge their plug-in hybrid. Will it be a conventional 110 VAC outlet plug or will GM still try to push inductive (I hope not). This will be interesting to watch. Nickel metal hydride batteries are just too expensive. Li will be the direction and it will be interesting to see who GM chooses. It will also be interesting to see how Toyota and Japan does this. Panasonic and Toyota are working to together on EV batteries. This makes a very capable and wealthy set of companies who know what they are doing.
I still think GM missed an opportunity to take their fuel cell Equinox and make a real EV out of it. Yes, it could be done quickly and easily, but this flies in the face of California trying to mandate CO2 emissions. GM claims is impossible without making all products much smaller which translate into regulating fuel ecomony, which a State can not do. Around and around it goes. Bottomline: It does not matter what GM does, this is good news for the EV cause. I am excited!